Algebra II : Probability

Study concepts, example questions & explanations for Algebra II

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Example Questions

Example Question #10 : Binomial Theorem

Which is equivalent to  ?

Possible Answers:

Correct answer:

Explanation:

To answer this question, you could either use the binomial theorem or multiply . Both are detailed below.

Note: If you need help understanding Sigma Notation, please visit: https://www.varsitytutors.com/hotmath/hotmath_help/topics/sigma-notation-of-a-series; additionally, the notation  is often read out loud as “n choose k” and is another way to write For more information on combinations, visit https://www.varsitytutors.com/hotmath/hotmath_help/topics/combinations

 

 

The Binomial Theorem is:

In our case, n=4. Plugging this in, we get:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alternatively, we can solve this problem by multiplying to get the following:

Example Question #1 : Using Probability To Make Decisions

There are two raffles that both support causes that you care about. You have $20, and want to purchase a ticket for the raffle that gives you the best odds of winning.
 
Raffle A supports a local charity, and has 75 tickets. Each ticket costs $15. One ticket will win a $110 prize, and the remaining tickets will win nothing.
Raffle B supports a national charity, and has 100 tickets. Each ticket costs $20. One ticket will win a $410 prize, and the remaining tickets will win nothing.
 
Which raffle is a better deal?
Possible Answers:

Raffle A, with payoff of -$15.90

Raffle B, with payoff of -$13.57

Raffle B, with payoff of -$15.90

Raffle A, with payoff of -$13.57

Correct answer:

Raffle A, with payoff of -$13.57

Explanation:
To solve this problem, first calculate the expected profit of raffle A. The expected profit is the expected payoff minus the cost. Since it costs $15 to enter the raffle, the cost is $15. Next, let X be a random variable whose value is the payoff in the raffle. Since the only prize is $110, the values X can take are $110 and $0 (if no prize is won). Since 1 ticket has a payoff of $110, the probability of winning $110 is 1/75 = 0.013. In other words P($110)=.013. Since the 74 remaining tickets have a payoff of $0, the probability of winning $0 is P($0)=.987.
 
To find E(X), the expected value of X, find  for each value k that X can take. Then sum these terms. 
 
Therefore, the expected payoff is $1.43. The expected profit of Raffle A is the expected payoff minus the cost: 
 
Next, let's look at Raffle B. The cost of Raffle B is $20. Then, we want to find the expected payoff for Raffle B. This time, we'll use the random variable Y. Since the only prize is $410, the values X can take are $410 and $0 (if no prize is won). Since 1 ticket has a payoff of $410, the probability of winning $410 is 1/100 = 0.01. In other words P($410)=.01. Since the 99 remaining tickets have a payoff of $0, the probability of winning $0 is P($0)=.99.
 
To find E(Y), the expected value of Y, find  for each value k that Y can take. Then sum these terms. 
 
Therefore, the expected payoff is $4.10. The expected profit of Raffle B is the expected payoff minus the cost: 
 
Since -$13.57 > -$15.90, Raffle A has the better payoff. 

Example Question #2 : Using Probability To Make Decisions

There are two raffles that both support causes that you care about. You have $20, and want to purchase a ticket for the raffle that gives you the best odds of winning.
 
Raffle A supports a local charity, and has 100 tickets. Each ticket costs $17. One ticket will win a $250 prize, and the remaining tickets will win nothing.
Raffle B supports a national charity, and has 200 tickets. Each ticket costs $19. One ticket will win a $290 prize, and the remaining tickets will win nothing.
 
Which raffle is a better deal?
Possible Answers:

Raffle A, with payoff of -$17.55

Raffle B, with payoff of -$14.50

Raffle B, with payoff of -$17.55

Raffle A, with payoff of -$14.50

Correct answer:

Raffle A, with payoff of -$14.50

Explanation:
To solve this problem, first calculate the expected profit of raffle A. The expected profit is the expected payoff minus the cost. Since it costs $17 to enter the raffle, the cost is $17. Next, let X be a random variable whose value is the payoff in the raffle. Since the only prize is $250, the values X can take are $250 and $0 (if no prize is won). Since 1 ticket has a payoff of $250, the probability of winning $250 is 1/100 = 0.01. In other words P($250)=.01. Since the 99 remaining tickets have a payoff of $0, the probability of winning $0 is P($0)=.99.
 
To find E(X), the expected value of X, find  for each value k that X can take. Then sum these terms. 
 
Therefore, the expected payoff is $2.50. The expected profit of Raffle A is the expected payoff minus the cost: 
 
Next, let's look at Raffle B. The cost of Raffle B is $19. Then, we want to find the expected payoff for Raffle B. This time, we'll use the random variable Y. Since the only prize is $290, the values X can take are $290 and $0 (if no prize is won). Since 1 ticket has a payoff of $290, the probability of winning $290 is 1/200 = 0.005. In other words P($290)=.005. Since the 199 remaining tickets have a payoff of $0, the probability of winning $0 is P($0)=.995.
 
To find E(Y), the expected value of Y, find  for each value k that Y can take. Then sum these terms. 
Therefore, the expected payoff is $1.45. The expected profit of Raffle B is the expected payoff minus the cost: 
 
Since -$14.50 > -$17.55, Raffle A has the better payoff. 

Example Question #3 : Using Probability To Make Decisions

There are two raffles that both support causes that you care about. You have $20, and want to purchase a ticket for the raffle that gives you the best odds of winning.
 
Raffle A supports a local charity, and has 100 tickets. Each ticket costs $17. One ticket will win a $110 prize, and the remaining tickets will win nothing.
Raffle B supports a national charity, and has 200 tickets. Each ticket costs $19. One ticket will win a $410 prize, and the remaining tickets will win nothing.
 
Which raffle is a better deal?
Possible Answers:

Raffle A, with payoff of -$15.90

Raffle B, with payoff of -$15.90

Raffle B, with payoff of -$16.95

Raffle A, with payoff of -$16.95

Correct answer:

Raffle A, with payoff of -$15.90

Explanation:
To solve this problem, first calculate the expected profit of raffle A. The expected profit is the expected payoff minus the cost. Since it costs $17 to enter the raffle, the cost is $17. Next, let X be a random variable whose value is the payoff in the raffle. Since the only prize is $110, the values X can take are $110 and $0 (if no prize is won). Since 1 ticket has a payoff of $110, the probability of winning $110 is 1/100 = 0.01. In other words P($110)=.01. Since the 99 remaining tickets have a payoff of $0, the probability of winning $0 is P($0)=.99.
 
To find E(X), the expected value of X, find  for each value k that X can take. Then sum these terms. 
 
Therefore, the expected payoff is $1.10. The expected profit of Raffle A is the expected payoff minus the cost: 
 
Next, let's look at Raffle B. The cost of Raffle B is $19. Then, we want to find the expected payoff for Raffle B. This time, we'll use the random variable Y. Since the only prize is $410, the values X can take are $410 and $0 (if no prize is won). Since 1 ticket has a payoff of $410, the probability of winning $410 is 1/200 = 0.005. In other words P($410)=.005. Since the 199 remaining tickets have a payoff of $0, the probability of winning $0 is P($0)=.995.
 
To find E(Y), the expected value of Y, find  for each value k that Y can take. Then sum these terms. 
Therefore, the expected payoff is $2.05. The expected profit of Raffle B is the expected payoff minus the cost: 
 
Since -$15.90 > -$16.95, Raffle A has the better payoff. 

Example Question #4 : Using Probability To Make Decisions

A spectator at a horse race is deciding which of three high-performing horses to bet on. Each horse’s ranks in past races can be expressed in terms of the following probability distributions:

Screen shot 2020 08 25 at 4.28.48 pm

The spectator wants to bet on the horse with the highest expected rank in its next race. Assuming that past performance is a good predictor of each horse’s performance in its respective next races, which horse should the spectator bet on?

Possible Answers:

Horse 3

Horse 2

Horse 1

Correct answer:

Horse 1

Explanation:

The expected value of each horse’s rank can be calculated as follows:

Expected value:

Horse 1:

Horse 2:

Horse 3:

The expected value predicts each horse’s rank in the upcoming race. Horse 1’s probability distribution yields the lowest expected value (i.e., the closest value to first place, represented by 1), so Horse 1 can be expected to rank most highly.

Example Question #1 : Using Probability To Make Decisions

A spectator at a horse race is deciding which of three high-performing horses to bet on. Each horse’s ranks in past races can be expressed in terms of the following probability distributions:

Screen shot 2020 08 25 at 4.39.25 pm

After some calculation, the spectator identifies and bets on the horse with the highest expected rank in its next race. However, her chosen horse places last in its next race, the other two horses each place first in their next races, and the spectator loses her bet. Why did her strategy fail?

Possible Answers:

There's not enough information to answer this question

Probability was not calculated correctly

Chance

Correct answer:

Chance

Explanation:

Expected value identifies the most likely outcome, but other outcomes may still result, including unlikely outcomes. Although the horse the spectator bet on had the highest likelihood among the other horses of ranking well in its next race, the race was still ultimately subject to chance. Additionally, the three horses’ expected ranks differed only slightly--2.1, 2.5 and 2.6--meaning that the horse with the highest expected rank had only a slightly greater likelihood of performing more highly than the other two horses to begin with. As a result, chance was a relatively significant determinant of outcomes.

Example Question #1 : Using Probability To Make Decisions

Three students are playing a game with a fair six-sided die. If an even number is rolled, student A gets a point. If a number less than 4 is rolled, student B gets a point. If a prime number is rolled, student C gets a point. The die will be rolled fifteen times.

Is the game fair? In other words, do all three students have the same odds of getting a point? 

Possible Answers:

No

Yes

Correct answer:

Yes

Explanation:

The sample space for the die roll is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Student A gets a point if 2, 4 or 6 is rolled. Student B gets a point if 1, 2 or 3 is rolled. Student C gets a point if 2, 3 or 5 is rolled. Therefore, all three students have a 3/6 = ½ = 0/5 = 50% chance of getting a point on each die roll. The number of times the die is rolled does not affect each student’s probability of getting a point; the probability is the same in each roll so long as neither the die nor the point rules change. 

 

Example Question #7 : Using Probability To Make Decisions

An experimental drug is created to reduce the amount of time patients feel sick with the common cold. In clinical trials of people suffering from the common cold, different participants taking the drug experienced symptoms for varying lengths of time. The scientists running the trial rounded each participant’s duration of symptoms to the nearest day, and used this information to develop the following probability distribution:

Screen shot 2020 08 25 at 4.35.14 pm

There were  participants. How many of them experienced symptoms for about  days?

Possible Answers:

 participants

 participants

 participants

 participants

Correct answer:

 participants

Explanation:

If the probability distribution was constructed based on the real durations of participants’ symptoms, the  probability corresponding to a -day duration of symptoms represents that  of the total number of trial participants experienced symptoms for about  days. There were  participants, so the number of participants who experienced symptoms for about  days must have been  participants.

Example Question #8 : Using Probability To Make Decisions

An experimental drug is created to reduce the amount of time patients feel sick with the common cold. In clinical trials of people suffering from the common cold, different participants taking the drug experienced symptoms for varying lengths of time. The scientists running the trial rounded each participant’s duration of symptoms to the nearest day, and used this information to develop the following probability distribution:

Screen shot 2020 08 25 at 4.35.14 pm

If the scientists select one of the participants at random, what duration of symptoms can they expect the participant to have experienced?

Possible Answers:

 days

 days

 days

 days

Correct answer:

 days

Explanation:

The expected duration of a randomly selected patient’s symptoms can be calculated using the expected value yielded by this probability distribution. This expected value can be calculated as follows:

Expected value:

Therefore, the most likely duration of symptoms a randomly selected participant would have is  days.

Example Question #9 : Using Probability To Make Decisions

A fair coin is flipped 9 times, yielding the following results:

Screen shot 2020 08 25 at 4.44.21 pm

Two students are deciding whether to flip this coin a tenth time, in order to decide which one of them will get to keep the five-dollar bill they found on a sidewalk. Would this be a fair method for making this decision?

Possible Answers:

No

Cannot be determined

Yes

Correct answer:

Yes

Explanation:

 As long as the coin is truly fair, meaning that there is a 50% chance that it will land on heads and a 50% chance that it will land on tails, the coin will still be fair on the tenth flip. Past results do not affect the odds of a particular result on a subsequent identical event. Therefore, flipping this coin would be a fair way to decide which of the two students will get to keep the five-dollar bill, since each one of them would have a 50% probability of keeping the bill.

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