AP Statistics : How to find confidence intervals for a mean

Study concepts, example questions & explanations for AP Statistics

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Example Questions

Example Question #1 : Confidence Intervals

Suppose you have a normally distributed variable with known variance. How many standard errors do you need to add and subtract from the sample mean so that you obtain 95% confidence intervals?

Possible Answers:

\(\displaystyle 2.035\)

\(\displaystyle 1.96\)

\(\displaystyle 1.99\)

\(\displaystyle 1.645\)

\(\displaystyle 1.98\)

Correct answer:

\(\displaystyle 1.96\)

Explanation:

To obtain 95% confidence intervals for a normal distribution with known variance, you take the mean and add/subtract \(\displaystyle 1.96\times standard\ error\). This is because 95% of the values drawn from a normally distributed sampling distribution lie within 1.96 standard errors from the sample mean. 

Example Question #2 : Confidence Intervals

An automotive engineer wants to estimate the cost of repairing a car that experiences a 25 MPH head-on collision. He crashes 24 cars, and the average repair is $11,000. The standard deviation of the 24-car sample is $2,500.

Provide a 98% confidence interval for the true mean cost of repair.

Possible Answers:

\(\displaystyle 11,000\pm1,456.6\)

 

\(\displaystyle 11,000\pm1,275.5\)

\(\displaystyle 11,000\pm1,188.77\)

\(\displaystyle 11,000\pm1,366.7\)

\(\displaystyle 11,000\pm987.6\)

Correct answer:

\(\displaystyle 11,000\pm1,275.5\)

Explanation:

Standard deviation for the samle mean:

\(\displaystyle 2500/\sqrt{24}=510.2\)

Since n < 30, we must use the t-table (not the z-table).

The 98% t-value for n=24 is 2.5.

\(\displaystyle 11,000\pm2.5\times510.2=11,000\pm1275.5\)

Example Question #1 : Confidence Intervals

300 hundred eggs were randomly chosen from a gravid female salmon and individually weighed. The mean weight was 0.978 g with a standard deviation of 0.042. Find the 95% confidence interval for the mean weight of the salmon eggs (because it is a large n, use the standard normal distribution).

 

Possible Answers:

\(\displaystyle (0.973 g, 0.9827 g)\)

\(\displaystyle (1.042 g, 0.827 g)\)

\(\displaystyle (0.563 g, 0.294 g)\)

\(\displaystyle (0.974 g, 0.982 g)\)

\(\displaystyle (-1.96 g, 1.96 g)\)

Correct answer:

\(\displaystyle (0.973 g, 0.9827 g)\)

Explanation:

Because we have such a large sample size, we are using the standard normal or z-distribution to calculate the confidence interval.

Formula: 

\(\displaystyle \bar{x} \pm z \cdot \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\)

\(\displaystyle \bar{x}= 0.978 g\) 

\(\displaystyle \sigma= 0.042\) 

We must find the appropriate z-value based on the given \(\displaystyle \alpha\) for 95% confidence: 

\(\displaystyle 1-\frac{\alpha}{2}= 1-\left(\frac{0.05}{2}\right)= 0.975\)

Then, find the associated z-score using the z-table for 

\(\displaystyle z _{0.975} = 1.96\)

Now we fill in the formula with our values from the problem to find the 95% CI.  

\(\displaystyle 0.978 \pm 1.96 \left( \frac{0.042}{\sqrt{300}}\right)= (0.973 g, 0.9827 g)\)

 

 

Example Question #3 : Confidence Intervals

A sample of \(\displaystyle n=56\) observations of 02 consumption by adult western fence lizards gave the following statistics:

\(\displaystyle Mean= 249 mm^3/g/hr\)

\(\displaystyle s= 24 mm^3/g/hr\)

Find the \(\displaystyle 90\%\) confidence limit for the mean 02 consumption by adult western fence lizards.

Possible Answers:

\(\displaystyle (273 mm^3/g/hr, 225 mm^3/g/hr)\)

\(\displaystyle (243.63 mm^3/g/hr, 254.36 mm^3/g/hr)\)

\(\displaystyle (242.57 mm^3/g/hr, 255.42 mm^3/g/hr)\)

\(\displaystyle (187.34 mm^3/g/hr, 225.73 mm^3/g/hr)\)

\(\displaystyle (119.23 mm^3/g/hr, 219.23 mm^3/g/hr)\)

Correct answer:

\(\displaystyle (243.63 mm^3/g/hr, 254.36 mm^3/g/hr)\)

Explanation:

Because we are only given the sample standard deviation we will use the t-distribution to calculate the confidence interval.

Appropriate Formula: 

\(\displaystyle = \bar{x} \pm t \cdot \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\)

Now we must identify our variables:

\(\displaystyle \bar{x}=249\)

\(\displaystyle s=24\)

\(\displaystyle n=56\)

We must find the appropriate t-value based on the given \(\displaystyle \alpha\)

t-value at 90% confidence:

 \(\displaystyle t_{\frac{\alpha }{2}, n-1}= t _{\frac{0.10}{2}}= t_{0.05, 55}\)

Look up t-value for 0.05, 55 , so t-value= ~ 1.6735

90% CI becomes:

\(\displaystyle 249 \pm 1.6735\left(\frac{24}{\sqrt{56}}\right)\)

\(\displaystyle = (243.63 mm^3/g/hr, 254.36 mm^3/g/hr)\)

 

Example Question #4 : Confidence Intervals

Subject     

Horn Length (in)

Subject      

Horn Length (in)

1

19.1

11

11.6

2

14.7

12

18.5

3

10.2

13

28.7

4

16.1

14

15.3

5

13.9

15

13.5

6

12.0

16

7.7

7

20.7

17

17.2

8

8.6

18

19.0

9

24.2

19

20.9

10

17.3

20

21.3

The data above represents measurements of the horn lengths of African water buffalo that were raised on calcium supplements. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the population mean for horn length after supplments.

Possible Answers:

\(\displaystyle (18.84 in, 16.21 in)\)

\(\displaystyle (21.81 in, 11.23 in)\)

\(\displaystyle (14.57 in, 18.28 in)\)

\(\displaystyle (14.47 in, 18.56 in)\)

\(\displaystyle (13.99 in, 19.07 in)\)

Correct answer:

\(\displaystyle (13.99 in, 19.07 in)\)

Explanation:

First you must calculate the sample mean and sample standard deviation of the sample.

\(\displaystyle \bar{x}=16.53\)

\(\displaystyle \sigma=5.29\)

Because we do not know the population standard deviation we will use the t-distribution to calculate the confidence intervals. We must use standard error in this formula because we are working with the standard deviation of the sampling distribution.

Formula: 

\(\displaystyle \bar{x} \pm t\cdot \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\)

To find the appropriate t-value for 95% confidence interval: 

\(\displaystyle \alpha =0.05, \frac{0.05}{2}=0.025\)

\(\displaystyle df=n-1= 20-1 = 19\)

Look up \(\displaystyle t_{\frac{\alpha }{2}, 19}\) in t-table and the corresponding t-value = 2.093.

Thus the 95% confidence interval is: 

\(\displaystyle 16.53 \pm 2.093\left(\frac{5.29}{\sqrt{19}}\right)= (13.99 mm Hg, 19.07 mm Hg)\)

 

Example Question #5 : Confidence Intervals

The population standard deviation is 7. Our sample size is 36.

What is the 95% margin of error for:

1) the population mean

2) the sample mean

Possible Answers:

1) 13.720

2) 2.287

1) 11

2) 3

1) 14.567

2) 4.445

1) 12.266

2) 3.711

1) 15.554

2) 3.656

Correct answer:

1) 13.720

2) 2.287

Explanation:

For 95% confidence, Z = 1.96.

1) The population M.O.E. =

\(\displaystyle 1.96 \times 7 = 13.720\) 

2) The sample standard deviation = 

\(\displaystyle 7\div\sqrt{36}=1.167\)

The sample M.O.E. = 

\(\displaystyle 1.96\times1.167=2.287\)

 

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