Flashcards: Explain Conditional Probability and Independence: CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-CP.A.5

A new test has been developed to detect lung cancer. A positive test result indicates lung cancer. There are, however, false positives, where the test incorrectly shows a positive result when there is no disease. Similarly, the test occassionally produces a negative result when a patient does in fact have lung cancer. All of the following are accurate EXCEPT:

\(\displaystyle P(-)=P(cancer)\cdot P(-\mid cancer)+P(no\ cancer)\cdot P(-\mid no\ cancer)\)

\(\displaystyle P(cancer\mid -)=\frac{P(-\mid cancer)\cdot P(cancer)}{P(-)}\)

\(\displaystyle P(cancer\mid +)=\frac{P(+\mid cancer)\cdot P(cancer)}{P(+)}\)

\(\displaystyle P(+)=P(cancer)\cdot P(+\mid cancer)+P(no\ cancer)\cdot P(+\mid no\ cancer)\)

\(\displaystyle P(cancer\mid +)=\frac{P(+\mid cancer)}{P(+)}\)

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