Risk Measures And Screening

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USMLE Step 1 › Risk Measures And Screening

Questions 1 - 10
1

A 60-year-old man has baseline 10-year MI risk 30%; statin lowers it to 24% (ARR 6%, RRR 20%). Which statement about the number needed to treat (NNT) is correct?​

NNT is $1/0.06\approx17$

NNT is $1/0.20=5$

NNT equals 6% risk

NNT is $1/0.24\approx4$

Explanation

This question tests understanding of risk measures and screening (USMLE Step 1). Risk measures like absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), and number needed to treat (NNT) help quantify treatment benefits and inform clinical decisions. In this vignette, NNT is key to determining how many patients need statin therapy to prevent one myocardial infarction over 10 years. Choice B is correct because NNT is calculated as 1/ARR, which is 1/0.06 ≈ 17. Choice A is incorrect due to mistakenly using an incorrect ARR value. Teaching strategies include memorizing the formulas for ARR, RRR, and NNT, and practicing their application in patient scenarios to appreciate how baseline risk influences treatment impact. Additionally, discuss these measures in shared decision-making to balance benefits and potential side effects.

2

A 50-year-old woman has mammography screening (sensitivity 90%, specificity 91%). Which of the following reflects the test's sensitivity?​

True negatives among all with cancer

True positives among all test positives

True positives among all with cancer

True negatives among all test negatives

Explanation

This question tests understanding of risk measures and screening (USMLE Step 1). Risk measures like sensitivity and specificity help understand test accuracy and implications on patient care. In this vignette, sensitivity is key to determining the test's ability to identify disease presence accurately. Choice A is correct because it reflects the test's sensitivity, defined as true positives among all with the disease. Choice B is incorrect due to misrepresenting sensitivity, as it would imply false negatives among diseased. Teaching strategies include focusing on understanding test characteristics like sensitivity and specificity, and applying them to patient care scenarios. Use 2x2 tables to calculate and visualize these measures in different prevalence settings.

3

A 60-year-old man begins BP therapy. Baseline 10-year stroke risk is 10%; treated risk is 8% (ARR 2%). Which statement about the number needed to treat (NNT) is correct?​

NNT equals the baseline risk

NNT is $1/0.02=50$

NNT equals the treated risk

NNT is $1/0.20=5$

Explanation

This question tests understanding of risk measures and screening (USMLE Step 1). Risk measures like absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), and number needed to treat (NNT) help quantify treatment benefits and inform clinical decisions. In this vignette, NNT is key to determining how many patients need blood pressure therapy to prevent one stroke over 10 years. Choice A is correct because NNT is calculated as 1/ARR, which is 1/0.02 = 50. Choice B is incorrect due to mistakenly using RRR or another value instead of ARR. Teaching strategies include memorizing the formulas for ARR, RRR, and NNT, and practicing their application in patient scenarios to appreciate how baseline risk influences treatment impact. Additionally, discuss these measures in shared decision-making to balance benefits and potential side effects.

4

A 60-year-old man starts statins. Trial data: MI risk 6% with placebo vs 4% with statin over 10 years (ARR 2%, RRR 33%). Which statement about the number needed to treat (NNT) is correct?​

NNT equals the treated risk

NNT equals the baseline risk

NNT is $1/0.02=50$

NNT is $1/0.33\approx3$

Explanation

This question tests understanding of risk measures and screening (USMLE Step 1). Risk measures like absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), and number needed to treat (NNT) help quantify treatment benefits and inform clinical decisions. In this vignette, NNT is key to determining how many patients need statin therapy to prevent one myocardial infarction over 10 years. Choice A is correct because NNT is calculated as 1/ARR, which is 1/0.02 = 50. Choice B is incorrect due to mistakenly using RRR (0.33) instead of ARR in the NNT formula. Teaching strategies include memorizing the formulas for ARR, RRR, and NNT, and practicing their application in patient scenarios to appreciate how baseline risk influences treatment impact. Additionally, discuss these measures in shared decision-making to balance benefits and potential side effects.

5

A 60-year-old man considers statins. Without treatment, 10-year MI risk is 20%; with statins it is 15% (ARR 5%, RRR 25%). Which statement about the number needed to treat (NNT) is correct?​

NNT is $1/0.05=20$

NNT is $1/0.15\approx7$

NNT is $1/0.25\approx4$

NNT equals 5% risk

Explanation

This question tests understanding of risk measures and screening (USMLE Step 1). Risk measures like absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), and number needed to treat (NNT) help quantify treatment benefits and inform clinical decisions. In this vignette, NNT is key to determining how many patients need statin therapy to prevent one myocardial infarction over 10 years. Choice B is correct because NNT is calculated as 1/ARR, which is 1/0.05 = 20. Choice A is incorrect due to mistakenly using RRR (0.25) instead of ARR in the NNT formula. Teaching strategies include memorizing the formulas for ARR, RRR, and NNT, and practicing their application in patient scenarios to appreciate how baseline risk influences treatment impact. Additionally, discuss these measures in shared decision-making to balance benefits and potential side effects.

6

Which of the following is the best estimate of the relative risk of developing cirrhosis associated with heavy alcohol consumption in this study?

1.1

4

8

70

Explanation

Relative risk (RR) is the ratio of the incidence of a disease in the exposed group to the incidence in the unexposed group. The incidence in the exposed group (heavy drinkers) is 80/1000 = 0.08. The incidence in the unexposed group (non-drinkers) is 10/1000 = 0.01. The relative risk is calculated as (Incidence in exposed) / (Incidence in unexposed) = 0.08 / 0.01 = 8.0.

7

Which of the following biases best explains the apparent increase in 5-year survival?

Recall bias

Selection bias

Length-time bias

Lead-time bias

Explanation

Lead-time bias occurs when a screening test detects a disease earlier than it would have been detected by clinical symptoms. This increases the measured survival time from diagnosis, even if the treatment does not prolong life. The fact that the overall mortality rate is unchanged suggests that the early diagnosis did not alter the ultimate outcome, which is the hallmark of lead-time bias.

8

What is the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one severe migraine over one year with this new drug?

5

10

20

50

Explanation

The number needed to treat (NNT) is the reciprocal of the absolute risk reduction (ARR). First, calculate the ARR: ARR = (Risk in control group) - (Risk in treatment group) = 15% - 10% = 5% or 0.05. Then, calculate the NNT: NNT = 1 / ARR = 1 / 0.05 = 20. This means 20 patients need to be treated for one year to prevent one severe migraine.

9

What is the absolute risk reduction (ARR) for stroke with the new medication?

2%

3%

5%

40%

Explanation

Absolute risk reduction (ARR) is the difference in the event rate between the control group and the treatment group. The event rate in the control group is 50/1000 = 5%. The event rate in the treatment group is 30/1000 = 3%. ARR = (Risk in control) - (Risk in treatment) = 5% - 3% = 2%.

10

What is the excess risk of bladder cancer per 1000 persons that is attributable to the chemical exposure?

5 persons

50 persons

25 persons

30 persons

Explanation

Attributable risk (also known as absolute risk increase or excess risk) is the difference in risk between the exposed and unexposed groups. Risk in exposed = 60/2000 = 0.03 or 30 per 1000. Risk in unexposed = 10/2000 = 0.005 or 5 per 1000. Attributable risk = 30 per 1000 - 5 per 1000 = 25 per 1000 persons.

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