Probability
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PSAT Math › Probability
A spinner has 8 equal sections numbered 1 through 8. The spinner is spun once. What is the probability that the result is a multiple of 3 or an even number?
$\frac{5}{8}$
$\frac{3}{8}$
$\frac{4}{8}$
$\frac{6}{8}$
Explanation
This question asks for the probability that a spinner result is either a multiple of 3 or an even number from sections 1-8. The multiples of 3 are {3, 6}, and the even numbers are {2, 4, 6, 8}. The union of these sets is {2, 3, 4, 6, 8}, which contains 5 numbers (note that 6 appears in both sets but is counted only once). Therefore, P(multiple of 3 OR even) = 5/8. A common error is adding 2 + 4 = 6 favorable outcomes by counting 6 twice. When finding probabilities involving 'or', always identify the overlap to avoid double-counting.
A spinner is divided into 8 equal sections labeled A, A, B, B, B, C, C, and D. The spinner is spun once. What is the probability of landing on a letter that is not B?
$\frac{3}{8}$
$\frac{2}{8}$
$\frac{1}{2}$
$\frac{5}{8}$
Explanation
The question asks for the probability of landing on a letter that is not B on a spinner with 8 equal sections: 2 A, 3 B, 2 C, 1 D. The sample space is 8 sections, with 3 B sections. The favorable outcomes are the 5 non-B sections (2 A + 2 C + 1 D). Thus, P(not B) = $\frac{5}{8}$, or 1 - $\frac{3}{8}$. A common error is treating letters as equally likely instead of sections, like assuming $\frac{3}{4}$ letters are not B. Emphasize counting actual outcomes in the sample space, not just unique labels.
A fair six-sided die is rolled once. What is the probability of rolling an even number or a number greater than 4?
$\frac{4}{6}$
$\frac{2}{6}$
$\frac{3}{6}$
$\frac{5}{6}$
Explanation
The question asks for the probability of rolling an even number or a number greater than 4 on a fair six-sided die. The sample space is 6 outcomes: ${1,2,3,4,5,6}$, with even numbers ${2,4,6}$ (3 outcomes) and numbers >4 ${5,6}$ (2 outcomes). The favorable outcomes are the union ${2,4,5,6}$ (4 outcomes), calculated as $3 + 2 - 1 = 4$ using inclusion-exclusion. Thus, P = $4/6 = 2/3$. A common error is forgetting to subtract the overlap (6), leading to $5/6$. Emphasize listing all outcomes to identify the exact sample space and overlaps in 'or' problems.
A fair coin is flipped 3 times. What is the probability of getting at least one head?
$\frac{1}{2}$
$\frac{1}{8}$
$\frac{7}{8}$
$\frac{3}{8}$
Explanation
This asks for the probability of getting at least one head in 3 coin flips. The complement of "at least one head" is "no heads" (all tails). With a fair coin, P(tails on one flip) = 1/2, so P(all tails in 3 flips) = (1/2)³ = 1/8. Therefore, P(at least one head) = 1 - 1/8 = 7/8. The complement approach is often easier than counting all favorable outcomes (HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH). For "at least one" problems, consider using the complement rule: P(at least one) = 1 - P(none).
A box contains 4 math books and 6 history books. Two books are chosen at random without replacement. What is the probability that the second book chosen is a math book given that the first book chosen is a history book?
$\tfrac{4}{10}$
$\tfrac{2}{5}$
$\tfrac{1}{3}$
$\tfrac{4}{9}$
Explanation
The question is asking for the conditional probability that the second book chosen is a math book, given that the first was a history book, without replacement from 4 math and 6 history. The relevant outcomes are after the first history is chosen, the remaining books: 4 math, 5 history, total 9. The probability is $\tfrac{4}{9}$, since given first is history, second is math with 4 left out of 9. Note this is conditional, so we don't need the probability of the condition. A key error is to think the first affects differently, but given it happened, just update the counts. Another error is to use the original proportions without updating. A test-taking strategy is to simulate the condition and recalculate the probabilities based on the updated sample space.
A jar contains 6 red marbles, 5 blue marbles, and 4 green marbles (15 total). One marble is chosen at random. Given that the marble is not green, what is the probability it is blue?
$\frac{1}{3}$
$\frac{5}{11}$
$\frac{5}{15}$
$\frac{5}{9}$
Explanation
This is a conditional probability question asking for P(blue | not green). We have 15 marbles total: 6 red, 5 blue, and 4 green, so 11 marbles are not green (6 red + 5 blue). Given that the marble is not green, our sample space reduces to these 11 marbles, of which 5 are blue. Therefore, P(blue | not green) = 5/11. A common mistake is calculating P(blue) = 5/15 without considering the condition. For conditional probability, always identify the reduced sample space first, then count favorable outcomes within that space.
A multiple-choice quiz has 5 questions, each with 4 answer choices, and a student guesses randomly on every question. What is the probability that the student answers exactly 3 questions correctly?
$\tfrac{45}{512}$
$\tfrac{27}{256}$
$\tfrac{15}{128}$
$\tfrac{5}{64}$
Explanation
The question is asking for the probability that a student who guesses randomly on a 5-question quiz with 4 choices each gets exactly 3 correct. The relevant outcomes are the binomial trials, with success probability $p=1/4$ for each question, $n=5$, $k=3$. The calculation uses the binomial probability formula $P(k) = C(n,k) \cdot p^k \cdot(1-p)^{n-k}$. So, $C(5,3) =10$, $(1/4)^3 =1/64$, $(3/4)^2 =9/16$, then $10 \times(1/64) \times(9/16) = 90 / 1024 = 45/512$. A key error is to use $p=1/2$ instead of $1/4$. Another error is forgetting the binomial coefficient and just doing $p^k \cdot(1-p)^{n-k}$. A test-taking strategy is to recall the binomial formula for "exactly k" in independent trials.
A computer generates a 3-character code. The first character is a letter chosen uniformly from A, B, or C. The second character is a digit chosen uniformly from 1, 2, 3, or 4. The third character is a letter chosen uniformly from A, B, or C. What is the probability the code starts and ends with the same letter?
$\frac{1}{4}$
$\frac{1}{9}$
$\frac{1}{3}$
$\frac{2}{3}$
Explanation
This problem asks for the probability that a 3-character code starts and ends with the same letter. The first character has 3 choices (A, B, or C), the second has 4 choices (1, 2, 3, or 4), and for the code to start and end with the same letter, the third character must match the first. So there are $3 \times 4 \times 1 = 12$ favorable codes out of $3 \times 4 \times 3 = 36$ total possible codes. Therefore, $P(\text{same first and last letter}) = 12/36 = 1/3$. A common error is treating the third character as independent when it's constrained by the condition. When events are dependent, count carefully.
A card is drawn at random from a standard 52-card deck. What is the probability the card is a heart or a face card (jack, queen, or king)?
$\frac{3}{13}$
$\frac{11}{26}$
$\frac{5}{13}$
$\frac{1}{4}$
Explanation
This question asks for the probability that a randomly drawn card from a standard 52-card deck is a heart or a face card (jack, queen, or king). The relevant outcomes are the 13 hearts and the 12 face cards, but subtracting the 3 heart face cards to avoid double-counting, giving $13 + 12 - 3 = 22$ favorable out of 52. The probability is $P(\text{heart or face}) = \frac{\text{number of hearts} + \text{number of face} - \text{number of heart face}}{52} = \frac{22}{52} = \frac{11}{26}$, using the inclusion-exclusion principle. Simplifying $22/52$ by dividing numerator and denominator by 2 yields $11/26$. This accounts for the overlap between the two categories. A key error is forgetting to subtract the intersection, resulting in $25/52$ instead. When dealing with 'or' in probability, always apply inclusion-exclusion to handle overlaps.
A standard deck has 52 cards. One card is drawn at random. What is the probability that the card is a heart or a face card (jack, queen, or king)?
$\dfrac{22}{52}$
$\dfrac{10}{52}$
$\dfrac{25}{52}$
$\dfrac{13}{52}$
Explanation
The question asks for the probability that a card drawn from a standard 52-card deck is a heart or a face card (jack, queen, or king). There are 13 hearts and 12 face cards, but 3 overlapping heart face cards. Using inclusion-exclusion, favorable outcomes = 13 + 12 - 3 = 22, so P = 22/52 = 11/26. The calculation accounts for the overlap to avoid double-counting. A common error is adding without subtracting the intersection, yielding 25/52. When dealing with 'or' events, always apply inclusion-exclusion and carefully count the sample space to handle overlaps correctly.