All questions
Question 1
A tech company compares the proportion of users who enable two-factor authentication (2FA) on two app versions. In independent random samples, 410 of 800 users on Version 1 enabled 2FA and 372 of 820 users on Version 2 enabled 2FA. A 95% confidence interval for p1−p2 is (0.01, 0.11). Which interpretation is correct?
- There is a 95% chance that the difference p1−p2 is between 0.01 and 0.11.
- We are 95% confident that Version 2's 2FA proportion is 0.01 to 0.11 higher than Version 1's 2FA proportion.
- We are 95% confident that the proportion of users who enable 2FA is between 0.01 and 0.11 for Version 1.
- We are 95% confident that Version 1's 2FA proportion is 0.01 to 0.11 higher than Version 2's 2FA proportion. (correct answer)
- Because 0 is not in the interval, the sample proportions must be equal.
Explanation: This question tests interpretation of a positive confidence interval. The interval (0.01, 0.11) for p₁ - p₂ indicates Version 1 has a higher 2FA enablement proportion than Version 2. Choice D correctly states that we are 95% confident Version 1's 2FA proportion is 0.01 to 0.11 higher than Version 2's. Choice A incorrectly treats confidence as probability. Choice B reverses which version is higher. Choice C only describes one proportion. Choice E incorrectly concludes the samples are equal when the interval doesn't contain 0.
Question 2
Two independent random samples are taken to compare the proportion of adults who drink coffee daily in two regions. In Region 1, 156 of 260 adults drink coffee daily; in Region 2, 120 of 250 adults drink coffee daily. A 95% confidence interval for p1−p2 is (0.04, 0.20). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 95% confident that p2−p1 is between 0.04 and 0.20.
- If we repeated the sampling many times, 95% of the intervals would contain the sample difference p^1−p^2.
- We are 95% confident that the proportion of adults who drink coffee daily is between 0.04 and 0.20 in Region 1.
- We are 95% confident that Region 1's daily-coffee proportion is 0.04 to 0.20 higher than Region 2's daily-coffee proportion. (correct answer)
- There is a 95% probability that the true difference p1−p2 is outside the interval (0.04,0.20).
Explanation: This question involves interpreting a confidence interval for p₁ - p₂, where p₁ is the proportion of all adults in Region 1 who drink coffee daily and p₂ is the proportion in Region 2. The interval (0.04, 0.20) is entirely positive, indicating Region 1 has a higher proportion. Choice D correctly states that we are 95% confident Region 1's proportion is 0.04 to 0.20 higher than Region 2's proportion. Choice A reverses the order of subtraction. Choice B misunderstands what the interval estimates. Choice C only describes one proportion, not the difference. Choice E incorrectly states the probability is outside the interval.
Question 3
Two independent random samples are used to compare the proportion of voters who approve of Candidate A in two counties. In County 1, 310 of 500 approve; in County 2, 295 of 520 approve. A 95% confidence interval for p1−p2 is (0.01, 0.11). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 95% confident that Candidate A's approval proportion in County 1 is 0.01 to 0.11 higher than in County 2. (correct answer)
- There is a 95% probability that the interval (0.01,0.11) will contain p^1−p^2.
- Because 0 is not in the interval, we know for sure that p1−p2=0.06.
- We are 95% confident that between 1% and 11% of all voters approve of Candidate A in County 1.
- We are 95% confident that Candidate A's approval proportion in County 2 is 0.01 to 0.11 higher than in County 1.
Explanation: This question involves interpreting a confidence interval for p₁ - p₂, where p₁ is Candidate A's approval proportion in County 1 and p₂ is the approval proportion in County 2. The interval (0.01, 0.11) is entirely positive, indicating County 1 has higher approval. Choice A correctly states that we are 95% confident Candidate A's approval proportion in County 1 is 0.01 to 0.11 higher than in County 2. Choice B misunderstands what the interval estimates. Choice C incorrectly assumes we know the exact difference. Choice D confuses the difference with a single proportion. Choice E reverses the counties.
Question 4
A university compares the proportion of students who pass an exam after two different review sessions. In independent random samples, 45 of 60 students who attended Session 1 passed and 38 of 62 students who attended Session 2 passed. A 98% confidence interval for p1−p2 is (0.02, 0.30). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 98% confident that the true difference in passing rates, p1−p2, is between 0.02 and 0.30. (correct answer)
- There is a 98% chance that Session 1 will cause a student to pass the exam.
- We are 98% confident that p2−p1 is between 0.02 and 0.30.
- Because the interval does not include 0, there is no difference between the two sessions in the population.
- We are 98% confident that between 2% and 30% of all students pass the exam.
Explanation: This question tests understanding of confidence intervals for differences in proportions. The interval (0.02, 0.30) for p₁ - p₂ estimates the difference in passing rates between Session 1 and Session 2. Since the interval is entirely positive, Session 1 has a higher passing rate. Choice A correctly interprets this: we are 98% confident that the true difference p₁ - p₂ is between 0.02 and 0.30. Choice B incorrectly implies causation. Choice C reverses the order of subtraction. Choice D misinterprets a non-zero interval. Choice E confuses the difference with individual proportions.
Question 5
A city surveys two independent random samples to compare the proportion who support a new recycling fee. Among 210 renters, 98 support the fee; among 190 homeowners, 105 support the fee. A 90% confidence interval for pR−pH is (−0.18, −0.04). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 90% confident that the proportion of renters who support the fee is between 0.04 and 0.18 lower than the proportion of homeowners who support the fee. (correct answer)
- There is a 90% probability that pR−pH equals a value between −0.18 and −0.04.
- Because the interval is negative, 90% of renters and 90% of homeowners support the fee.
- We are 90% confident that pH−pR is between −0.18 and −0.04.
- Since 0 is not in the interval, there is no difference between renters and homeowners in the population.
Explanation: This question involves interpreting a confidence interval for p_R - p_H, where p_R is the proportion of all renters who support the fee and p_H is the proportion of all homeowners who support the fee. The interval (-0.18, -0.04) is entirely negative, meaning p_R is less than p_H. Choice A correctly states that we are 90% confident the proportion of renters who support the fee is between 0.04 and 0.18 lower than the proportion of homeowners. Choice B incorrectly treats confidence as probability. Choice C completely misinterprets the negative interval. Choice D has the wrong order of subtraction (it would give a positive interval). Choice E incorrectly concludes no difference when the interval doesn't contain 0.
Question 6
A political scientist compared the proportion of voters who support a ballot measure in two regions. In random samples, 210 of 350 voters in the North region and 188 of 360 voters in the South region supported the measure. A 98% confidence interval for pN−pS is (0.01, 0.16). Which interpretation is correct?
- There is a 98% chance that the true proportions pN and pS will change so that their difference stays between 0.01 and 0.16.
- We are 98% confident that the North's support proportion is between 0.01 and 0.16 higher than the South's support proportion. (correct answer)
- We are 98% confident that the South's support proportion is between 0.01 and 0.16 higher than the North's support proportion.
- Because 0 is not in the interval, the probability that a randomly selected voter supports the measure is between 0.01 and 0.16.
- 98% of the time, the sample difference p^N−p^S will be between 0.01 and 0.16 for these same samples.
Explanation: This question tests the skill of interpreting a confidence interval for pN - pS, the difference in voter support proportions between regions. The 98% interval (0.01, 0.16) indicates we are 98% confident that the North's proportion is between 0.01 and 0.16 higher than the South's. Choice C distracts by reversing which region is higher, contradicting the positive interval. Choice A incorrectly suggests the proportions themselves change within the interval. For a mini-lesson: confidence intervals for differences rely on normal approximations for large samples, giving a range where pN - pS plausibly falls. Excluding 0 with positive endpoints provides evidence of higher support in the North.
Question 7
A public health study compares the proportion of adults who received a flu shot in two counties. In County X, 156 of 260 adults in a random sample received a flu shot; in County Y, 170 of 300 adults in a random sample received a flu shot. A 95% confidence interval for (pX−pY) is (−0.06,0.12). Which interpretation is correct?
- Because 0 is in the interval, we are 95% confident that County X has a lower flu-shot proportion than County Y.
- We are 95% confident that the true difference in flu-shot proportions (pX−pY) is between −0.06 and 0.12. (correct answer)
- There is a 95% probability that the true difference (pX−pY) is exactly 0.
- We are 95% confident that 6% to 12% of adults in County X received a flu shot.
- If we took many samples, 95% of adults would fall within −0.06 and 0.12 of being vaccinated.
Explanation: This question involves interpreting a confidence interval containing zero for flu shot proportions. The interval (-0.06, 0.12) for (pₓ - pᵧ) includes both negative and positive values, indicating uncertainty about which county has higher vaccination rates. Choice B correctly states we are 95% confident that the true difference in flu-shot proportions is between -0.06 and 0.12. Choice A incorrectly concludes County X has lower rates when positive values in the interval suggest it could be higher. Choice C incorrectly assigns probability to exact equality. Choice D misinterprets the interval as being about a single proportion. Choice E makes no statistical sense. When zero is in the interval, we cannot determine which population proportion is larger.
Question 8
A school compares the proportion of students who prefer online homework between two grades. In a random sample, 78 of 120 ninth-graders and 60 of 110 tenth-graders said they prefer online homework. A 95% confidence interval for the difference in population proportions (p9−p10) is (0.02,0.20). Which interpretation is correct?
- There is a 95% probability that the true difference (p9−p10) is between 0.02 and 0.20.
- We are 95% confident that the true difference in proportions (p9−p10) is between 0.02 and 0.20. (correct answer)
- About 95% of ninth-graders prefer online homework, and about 95% of tenth-graders do too.
- Because 0 is not in the interval, there is no difference between p9 and p10.
- We are 95% confident that the difference in sample proportions (p^9−p^10) is between 0.02 and 0.20.
Explanation: This question tests understanding of confidence interval interpretation for the difference of two proportions. The interval (0.02, 0.20) estimates the true difference in population proportions (p₉ - p₁₀). Choice B correctly states we are 95% confident that the true difference in proportions is between 0.02 and 0.20. Choice A incorrectly uses probability language - confidence intervals don't give probabilities about parameters. Choice C misinterprets the interval as being about individual proportions rather than their difference. Choice D incorrectly concludes no difference when 0 is NOT in the interval. Choice E incorrectly refers to sample proportions rather than population proportions. Remember: confidence intervals estimate population parameters, not sample statistics.
Question 9
A company tests two website designs. Among 200 randomly selected visitors shown Design A, 54 made a purchase; among 180 randomly selected visitors shown Design B, 63 made a purchase. A 90% confidence interval for (pA−pB) is (−0.18,−0.02). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 90% confident that Design A's purchase proportion is between −0.18 and −0.02.
- Because the interval is negative, we are 90% confident that pB is between 0.02 and 0.18 greater than pA.
- There is a 90% chance that (pA−pB) is negative for this experiment.
- We are 90% confident that the true difference in purchase proportions (pA−pB) is between −0.18 and −0.02. (correct answer)
- Since 0 is not in the interval, the two sample proportions must be equal.
Explanation: This question involves interpreting a negative confidence interval for the difference of two proportions. The interval (-0.18, -0.02) estimates (pₐ - pᵦ), where negative values indicate Design A has a lower purchase proportion than Design B. Choice D correctly interprets this as being 90% confident that the true difference in purchase proportions is between -0.18 and -0.02. Choice A incorrectly refers to a single proportion rather than the difference. Choice B correctly notes that pᵦ is greater than pₐ but reverses the order of subtraction. Choice C incorrectly uses probability language about the parameter. Choice E incorrectly concludes equality when 0 is NOT in the interval. When interpreting negative intervals, pay attention to which proportion is subtracted from which.
Question 10
A city surveys two neighborhoods about support for a new park. In a random sample, 96 of 160 residents in Neighborhood 1 support the park and 84 of 150 residents in Neighborhood 2 support the park. A 99% confidence interval for (p1−p2) is (−0.05,0.13). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 99% confident that the true difference in support proportions (p1−p2) is between −0.05 and 0.13. (correct answer)
- There is a 99% probability that p1=p2 because 0 is in the interval.
- Because 0 is in the interval, we are 99% confident that Neighborhood 1 has a higher support proportion than Neighborhood 2.
- We are 99% confident that the sample difference (p^1−p^2) is between −0.05 and 0.13 for all samples.
- About 99% of all residents in both neighborhoods support the park.
Explanation: This question tests interpretation of a confidence interval that contains zero. The interval (-0.05, 0.13) for (p₁ - p₂) includes both negative and positive values, indicating uncertainty about which neighborhood has higher support. Choice A correctly states we are 99% confident that the true difference in support proportions is between -0.05 and 0.13. Choice B incorrectly assigns probability to the equality of parameters. Choice C incorrectly concludes Neighborhood 1 has higher support when the interval includes negative values. Choice D incorrectly refers to sample differences rather than population differences. Choice E completely misinterprets the interval as being about individual proportions. When zero is in the interval, we cannot conclude which population proportion is larger.
Question 11
A university compares the proportion of students who graduate in 4 years for two programs. In a random sample, 140 of 200 students in Program A graduate in 4 years and 118 of 190 students in Program B graduate in 4 years. A 92% confidence interval for (pA−pB) is (0.01,0.17). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 92% confident that the true difference in 4-year graduation proportions (pA−pB) is between 0.01 and 0.17. (correct answer)
- There is a 92% chance that Program A has a higher graduation proportion than Program B.
- We are 92% confident that between 1% and 17% of students in Program A graduate in 4 years.
- Because 0 is not in the interval, the true difference (pA−pB) must be 0.09 (the midpoint).
- We are 92% confident that the difference in sample proportions equals a value between 0.01 and 0.17 for all random samples of these sizes.
Explanation: This question tests proper interpretation of a positive confidence interval for graduation rates. The interval (0.01, 0.17) estimates (pₐ - pᵦ), indicating Program A has a higher 4-year graduation proportion. Choice A correctly states we are 92% confident that the true difference in 4-year graduation proportions is between 0.01 and 0.17. Choice B incorrectly uses probability language about which program is better. Choice C misinterprets the interval as being about a single proportion. Choice D incorrectly assumes the true difference must be the midpoint. Choice E incorrectly refers to sample proportions across all possible samples. Since 0 is not in the interval, we can conclude Program A has a higher graduation rate than Program B.
Question 12
A sports analyst compares the proportion of free throws made by two players over a season. From random samples of attempts, Player 1 made 85 of 120 and Player 2 made 72 of 115. A 95% confidence interval for (p1−p2) is (−0.01,0.17). Which interpretation is correct?
- There is a 95% probability that Player 1's true free-throw proportion is between −0.01 and 0.17.
- We are 95% confident that the true difference in free-throw proportions (p1−p2) is between −0.01 and 0.17. (correct answer)
- Because 0 is in the interval, Player 2 definitely has a higher true free-throw proportion than Player 1.
- We are 95% confident that Player 1 makes between 1% fewer and 17% more free throws than Player 2 in the sample.
- If the sampling were repeated many times, 95% of the computed intervals would not contain (p1−p2).
Explanation: This question addresses interpretation of a confidence interval containing zero for basketball free throws. The interval (-0.01, 0.17) for (p₁ - p₂) includes both negative and positive values, though mostly positive. Choice B correctly states we are 95% confident that the true difference in free-throw proportions is between -0.01 and 0.17. Choice A incorrectly suggests a negative proportion is possible. Choice C incorrectly concludes Player 2 is better when the interval is mostly positive. Choice D incorrectly refers to sample proportions. Choice E misunderstands the meaning of confidence level. Since zero is in the interval, we cannot definitively conclude which player has a higher true free-throw proportion.
Question 13
A school compared the proportion of students who prefer online homework in two grades. In a random sample, 84 of 150 ninth-graders and 72 of 160 tenth-graders said they prefer online homework. A 95% confidence interval for the difference in population proportions, p9−p10, is (0.02, 0.20). Which interpretation is correct?
- There is a 95% chance that the true difference p9−p10 is between 0.02 and 0.20.
- We are 95% confident that the proportion of all ninth-graders who prefer online homework is between 0.02 and 0.20 higher than the proportion of all tenth-graders who prefer online homework. (correct answer)
- About 95% of ninth-graders prefer online homework, and the difference from tenth-graders is between 0.02 and 0.20.
- Since 0 is not in the interval, exactly 95% of ninth-graders prefer online homework more than tenth-graders.
- We are 95% confident that the proportion of all tenth-graders who prefer online homework is between 0.02 and 0.20 higher than the proportion of all ninth-graders who prefer online homework.
Explanation: This question assesses the skill of interpreting a confidence interval for the difference of two proportions, specifically for the difference p9 - p10 in preferences for online homework. The 95% confidence interval (0.02, 0.20) indicates that we are 95% confident the true proportion of ninth-graders preferring online homework is between 0.02 and 0.20 higher than that of tenth-graders. A common distractor, like choice A, mistakenly treats the interval as a probability for the parameter rather than a confidence statement about the method capturing the true difference. Another distractor, choice E, reverses the order of subtraction, implying tenth-graders have a higher proportion, which contradicts the positive interval. In a mini-lesson on confidence intervals for differences: these intervals are calculated as (\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2) \pm z^* \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2}}, providing a range for the plausible values of p1 - p2. Since the interval is entirely positive and excludes 0, there is evidence that ninth-graders have a higher preference rate in the population.
Question 14
A botanist compared the proportion of seeds that germinate under two types of light. In a random experiment, 45 of 80 seeds germinated under Light A and 56 of 90 seeds germinated under Light B. A 95% confidence interval for pA−pB is (−0.22, −0.01). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 95% confident that Light A's germination proportion is between 0.22 and 0.01 lower than Light B's germination proportion. (correct answer)
- There is a 95% probability that the sample difference p^A−p^B is between −0.22 and −0.01.
- We are 95% confident that Light A's germination proportion is between 0.22 and 0.01 higher than Light B's germination proportion.
- Because the entire interval is negative, Light A must have a higher germination proportion than Light B.
- 95% of individual seeds have a probability of germinating between −0.22 and −0.01 under Light A compared with Light B.
Explanation: This question focuses on interpreting a confidence interval for pA - pB, the difference in seed germination proportions under two lights. The 95% interval (-0.22, -0.01) means we are 95% confident that Light A's proportion is between 0.22 and 0.01 lower than Light B's. Choice C distracts by claiming 'higher' instead of 'lower,' ignoring the negative signs. Choice B wrongly applies the interval to sample differences rather than population parameters. Mini-lesson: confidence intervals for differences use the formula (\hat{p}_A - \hat{p}_B) \pm z^* \times SE, estimating where pA - pB lies with a given confidence. Since the interval is entirely negative, excluding 0, it provides evidence that Light B has a higher germination rate in the population.
Question 15
A company tested two website designs to see which leads to more purchases. Among 500 visitors shown Design 1, 62 made a purchase; among 520 visitors shown Design 2, 78 made a purchase. A 99% confidence interval for the difference in purchase rates, p1−p2, is (−0.05, 0.01). Which interpretation is correct?
- Because the interval includes 0, there is no difference between the two designs in the populations.
- We are 99% confident that Design 1's purchase rate is between 0.05 lower and 0.01 higher than Design 2's purchase rate. (correct answer)
- There is a 99% chance that p1−p2 equals 0 since 0 is in the interval.
- We are 99% confident that p2−p1 is between −0.05 and 0.01.
- 99% of all visitors will have purchase rates between −0.05 and 0.01 when comparing the two designs.
Explanation: This question tests interpreting a confidence interval for the difference in purchase rates, p1 - p2, between two website designs. The 99% interval (-0.05, 0.01) suggests we are 99% confident that Design 1's rate is between 0.05 lower and 0.01 higher than Design 2's. A frequent distractor, like choice A, claims that including 0 means no population difference, but it actually means no strong evidence against equality. Choice D incorrectly states the interval for p2 - p1 without adjusting the bounds properly. Mini-lesson: to form a CI for p1 - p2, use the sample difference plus/minus a critical value times the standard error; the interval captures plausible differences, and including 0 indicates the data are consistent with no difference. Here, the endpoints straddle 0, so we cannot conclude one design is superior.
Question 16
A university compared the proportion of students who report high stress in two majors. In random samples, 120 of 200 engineering students and 102 of 210 business students reported high stress. A 95% confidence interval for the difference peng−pbus is (0.03, 0.21). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 95% confident that the proportion of engineering students who report high stress is between 0.03 and 0.21.
- We are 95% confident that engineering's high-stress proportion is between 0.03 and 0.21 higher than business's high-stress proportion. (correct answer)
- There is a 95% chance that peng−pbus is not between 0.03 and 0.21.
- Because 0 is not in the interval, business students must have a higher high-stress proportion than engineering students.
- 95% of all possible samples will produce a confidence interval of (0.03, 0.21).
Explanation: This question focuses on interpreting a confidence interval for p_eng - p_bus, the difference in high-stress proportions between majors. The 95% interval (0.03, 0.21) means we are 95% confident that engineering's proportion is between 0.03 and 0.21 higher than business's. Choice D distracts by reversing which major has higher stress, ignoring the positive interval. Choice C misstates the probability as the chance the difference is not in the interval. In a mini-lesson: calculate CIs for differences using sample proportions and critical values; they estimate population differences reliably. Positive endpoints excluding 0 indicate engineering students likely experience higher stress.
Question 17
A teacher compared the proportion of students who pass a quiz after two different review methods. In one class using Method A, 31 of 50 students passed; in another class using Method B, 28 of 55 students passed. A 95% confidence interval for pA−pB is (−0.05, 0.27). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 95% confident that Method A's pass rate is between 0.05 lower and 0.27 higher than Method B's pass rate. (correct answer)
- Since the interval includes 0, Method B definitely has a higher pass rate than Method A.
- There is a 95% probability that pA is between −0.05 and 0.27.
- We are 95% confident that pB−pA is between −0.05 and 0.27.
- 95% of all students would have differences in passing between −0.05 and 0.27 when switching methods.
Explanation: This question assesses interpreting a confidence interval for pA - pB, the difference in quiz pass rates between review methods. The 95% interval (-0.05, 0.27) means we are 95% confident that Method A's rate is between 0.05 lower and 0.27 higher than Method B's. A distractor like choice D states the interval for pB - pA but fails to correctly invert the bounds. Choice B wrongly infers a definite superiority from including 0. Mini-lesson: construct a CI for p1 - p2 by adding/subtracting z* times the pooled or unpooled standard error from the sample difference; it provides a range of believable differences. With endpoints straddling 0, the data do not provide evidence of a significant difference between methods.
Question 18
A researcher compared the proportion of commuters who use public transit in two cities. In random samples, 155 of 300 commuters in City X and 162 of 320 commuters in City Y reported using public transit. A 94% confidence interval for pX−pY is (−0.06, 0.09). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 94% confident that City X's public-transit proportion is between 0.06 lower and 0.09 higher than City Y's public-transit proportion. (correct answer)
- We are 94% confident that City Y's public-transit proportion is between 0.06 lower and 0.09 higher than City X's public-transit proportion.
- There is a 94% probability that the interval (−0.06, 0.09) contains the sample difference p^X−p^Y.
- Since 0 is in the interval, City X has a lower public-transit proportion than City Y in the population.
- 94% of commuters in City X use public transit, and City Y differs by between −0.06 and 0.09.
Explanation: This question tests interpreting a confidence interval for pX - pY, the difference in public transit use between cities. The 94% interval (-0.06, 0.09) suggests we are 94% confident that City X's proportion is between 0.06 lower and 0.09 higher than City Y's. Choice B distracts by providing incorrect bounds for pY - pX, not properly reflecting the negation. Choice D wrongly concludes a definite difference despite including 0. Mini-lesson: confidence intervals for p1 - p2 use the difference of sample proportions plus/minus a margin of error; they cover the true value in C% of repeated samples. Straddling 0 means the data are consistent with no population difference.
Question 19
A gym compared the proportion of members who renew after a trial month for two membership offers. For Offer A, 54 of 120 trial members renewed; for Offer B, 63 of 130 trial members renewed. A 90% confidence interval for pA−pB is (−0.16, 0.08). Which interpretation is correct?
- There is a 90% probability that pA−pB is between −0.16 and 0.08.
- We are 90% confident that Offer B's renewal proportion is between 0.16 lower and 0.08 higher than Offer A's renewal proportion.
- We are 90% confident that Offer A's renewal proportion is between 0.16 lower and 0.08 higher than Offer B's renewal proportion. (correct answer)
- Because the interval contains 0, Offer A and Offer B have exactly the same renewal proportion in the population.
- 90% of individual members have renewal probabilities between −0.16 and 0.08 when comparing offers.
Explanation: This question evaluates understanding a confidence interval for pA - pB, the difference in membership renewal proportions. The 90% interval (-0.16, 0.08) means we are 90% confident that Offer A's proportion is between 0.16 lower and 0.08 higher than Offer B's. Choice B is a distractor with incorrect bounds for pB - pA, swapping the magnitudes without proper adjustment. Choice A wrongly uses 'probability' for the parameter. Mini-lesson: CIs for p1 - p2 account for sampling variability via the standard error, offering confidence that the true difference is captured. The interval including 0 suggests no significant difference between offers.
Question 20
A public health researcher compared the proportion of adults who received a flu shot in two counties. In random samples, 130 of 200 adults in County A and 96 of 180 adults in County B reported receiving a flu shot. A 90% confidence interval for pA−pB is (0.04, 0.18). Which interpretation is correct?
- We are 90% confident that County A's flu-shot proportion exceeds County B's by between 0.04 and 0.18. (correct answer)
- There is a 90% probability that pA−pB falls between 0.04 and 0.18.
- We are 90% confident that pB−pA is between 0.04 and 0.18.
- Because 0 is not in the interval, County B must have a higher flu-shot proportion than County A.
- About 90% of adults in County A received a flu shot, and the difference from County B is between 0.04 and 0.18.
Explanation: This question evaluates understanding of a confidence interval for the difference of two proportions, here pA - pB for flu-shot rates in two counties. The 90% confidence interval (0.04, 0.18) means we are 90% confident that County A's proportion exceeds County B's by between 0.04 and 0.18. Choice B is a distractor that incorrectly uses 'probability' instead of 'confidence,' misrepresenting the interval as a direct probability on the parameter. Choice C reverses the subtraction order, wrongly suggesting pB exceeds pA. For a mini-lesson: confidence intervals for p1 - p2 estimate the range where the true difference likely falls, with the confidence level reflecting the long-run success rate of the method. The endpoints 0.04 and 0.18, being positive, support that County A has a higher flu-shot proportion without including 0 in the interval.